This year poses a significant fork in the road towards responsible and sensible politics and policy. If President Obama and the Democratic leadership in Congress were to simply accomplish everything they had promised for this past year without adding anything new, the year would be a success. Don’t get your hopes up though. With midterms looming, one would hope that the Democrats have enough foresight to not let 2010 become a repeat of 1994. Lest we forget that the failure to pass health care reform, among other blunders caused Bill Clinton’s first two years to define his final six. His progressive agenda became a moderate one and our hopes and dreams were quashed. We cannot blow this chance again. That said, there are five stories to watch this year, each of which ties into what will happen in November and beyond:

1. Harry Reid. How does he balance his responsibilities as majority leader while running an aggressive campaign? It’s well known that Senator Reid is in trouble at home, and also that he is viewed as week and out of touch with the Democratic caucus by both insiders and outsiders. In fact, some (myself included) might regard it as a blessing in disguise to swallow the embarrassment of seeing him go down and be replaced by the either the very capable Dick Durbin of Illinois or the public relations genius and mastermind of the successes in 2006 and 2008, Chuck Schumer of New York. Senator Reid has a difficult decision to make. Should he martyr his seat in order to do what is right and preserve his legacy, or do whatever it takes to hold on? The final health care compromise will largely be shaped by Mr. Reid and this is both a great opportunity for him but also a huge threat to his tenure. Furthermore, it is up to Mr. Reid whether climate change is still atop the agenda or whether it is postponed till after November. Focusing on creating jobs may be the safe route, but it is asking for trouble as Republicans will do whatever it takes to slow down this effort.

2. COP-16. The next meeting following the Copenhagen conference will be in Mexico City. It will occur in late November and least through early December. With nothing substantial having come out of the last set of talks, the pressure will be on. Both houses of congress must come together to get a bill to the President’s desk prior. COP-15 was an embarrassment. The Copenhagen accord was only a result of President Obama cornering the negotiators of Brazil, South Africa, India and China in the airport where they were secretly conferring even though they told United States that they had left and it was too late. This cannot happen again. International negotiations of this sort as they have occurred in the past clearly are not an effective solution. It will take a lot of creative thinking to find another route that will bridge the divide between “north” and “south.”

3. The Tea Party Movement. Yes, I know how difficult it is to take these people seriously, but it would be a mistake hard not to. The Republican party is desperate and will do to come back to power in the House and Senate. Integrating the fringe into the core is certainly under consideration. If these highly motivated reactionaries can turn out the Republican base, the House might be within reach for the Republicans as many of the excited voters that Barack Obama turned out in 2008 choose to simply stay home. If their candidates win Republican party primaries, the consequences could be even more disastrous. Then again if they don’t, we could see a repeat of NY-23. With spending soaring out of control and their favorables soaring higher than that of both the Democratic and Republican parties, this is a movement that could pose serious headaches for both.

4. Iran’s pro-democracy movement. The West is in a precarious situation. It wants to encourage the revolutionaries as it genuinely believes that change is in the air. One the other hand, it needs to stay out, as the movement will not be successful if it is propped up from outside. There is a threat of a violent clash as the government tries to counter it. On the other side of the equation, deciding how to deal with Iran’s government, it’s nuclear ambitions and desire to be a hegemon in the Middle East are just as fragile. Coming down hard on Iran with sanctions could cause those fighting for democracy to turn on the West. It seems that the United States is coming closer to getting it right but changing their rhetoric to attack the Revolutionary Guard instead of the nation. The West needs to understand that people of Iran do not operate under the assumption that international relations can be viewed through the lens of the nation state. The two are still very separate ideals in the minds of Iranians. That said, I would not be shocked if Mir-Hossein Mousavi is Time’s person of the year for 2010. Full of courage and discipline, he poses a credible threat to the Iranian government. If he is martyred, political change becomes all but inevitable.

5. al-Quaeda. Seeing the attempted Christmas bombing dominate the news is indescribably difficult to watch. Part of me just wants the story to blow over so that we can focus on real issues. The days of large-scale 9-11 style attacks are over for the organization and its networks. The so-called “War on Terrorism” cut off their funding and so damaged al-Qaeda that it no longer has the ability to pull of such an attack. The leaders of the radical Islam movement are instead encouraging true guerilla tactics. Its followers should do whatever they can. Smaller attacks of this nature might become much more common and they are easier to slip through the cracks. What is to stop someone from blowing up a van in Times Square, for example. The randomness of such an attack would result in endless fear that would take years to remedy. The Democrats cannot begin a mudslinging battle with Republicans over the issue; they are right in ignoring the recent attacks led by the former vice-president and Fox’s army of pundits. Going on the defensive only gives the impression that there is reason to fear. They must instead go on the offensive and craft a legislative response in a timely and substantive fashion. Clearly, their opposition will not and 2010 becomes a slaughterfest if the Democrats do not either.

I intend to follow each of these five stories throughout the year. Look for periodical updates. It will certainly be interesting to see how each develops and how we look back upon them in twelve months.