
In this, the second part of my attempt to bring some clarity to what has been going down in the United Kingdom over the past week and a half, I’m going to cover some larger issues. What does this mean for Europe? How about US-UK relations? Read on and you’ll find out.
Gordon Brown and Barack Obama were not the best of friends. This is fairly well known. Many seem to cite the generational argument, as Gordy’s perspective on the world was shaped by growing up around the same time as Tony Blair, Bill Clinton, and Bush 43 as well as his formal Presbyterian Scottish background. Others attribute it to Gordon Browns “crusty” and “angular” demeanor; it was always thought that he was seething underneath, making him difficult to deal with. Whatever the reason, the Obama-Brown relationship was dogged by reported snubs. Much has been made of Obama’s choice to remove a bust of Churchill from the Oval Office. Britain and Europe, though partners with the US in Afghanistan, have tended to be on the second tier of Obama’s priorities. The President saw the prime area of US interest in the future as China and the Pacific.
Obama met Cameron in 2008 on a visit to Britain as part of his presidential election campaign. Journalist Richard Wolffe, who was on the trip and is close to White House staff, wrote in Renegade, his biography of Obama, that Obama’s aides “preferred the energy of the up-and-coming Cameron compared with the dour and dreary Brown”. It should then not be regarded as a surprise that David Cameron had barely stepped inside 10 Downing Street before President Barack Obama was on the phone, in a swift show of friendly intent toward the new British prime minister. On Cameron, Obama said “I find him to be a smart, dedicated, effective leader and somebody who we are going to be able to work with very effectively.Cameron, the youngest British Prime Minister in nearly two hundred years will visit the White House in July. While it’s fairly clear that my allegiance is with Labour, this is an interesting opportunity for both leaders to press the reset button on their nations relationship. In a complete 180 from his previous stance, Obama lauded: “We also both reaffirmed the extraordinary special relationship between the United States and Great Britain, one that outlasts any individual party, any individual leader. It is built up over centuries and it’s not going to go away.”
While the two couldn’t be more different on some issues – Cameron staked his campaign on running against big government – they do share a number of similarities. Both are pragmatic, largely non-ideological, and see themselves as the embodiment of political change. Cameron has pushed his party to the center on social issues, and given the less puritanical views of Europeans overall, the two are not far off.
As for foreign policy, the two countries will likely remain in lockstep. It will be interesting to see how much influence Clegg asserts. My guess is it will be little. Significantly, Clegg was the most anti-US pro-EU of the three. While Clegg may be the most knowledgeable and transformational of the three in his foreign policy views, his leadership abilities are questionable. Cameron’s Conservatives are divided over the issue of the EU, and this pervasive skepticism may limit clout on the continent. The reason the United States is concerned about this is Britain has traditionally been its first line of defense in preventing protectionist policies, trade wars, and keeping trade free.
Intent on cementing their relationship but making clear that Cameron is no “poodle,” William Hague, the new Foreign Secretary, visited Hillary Clinton on Friday. There are a number of topics that were discussed. Continued cooperation on Afghanistan seems to have been a large on and the least contentious. Iran also likely came up. As Brown was largely soft in his condemnations of the country, the new administration is committed to follow Sarkozy’s lead in taking a hard stance to prevent a nuclear armed Iran. Secretary Clinton’s desire to mediate the conflict over the Falkland Islands seems to been brought up and shot down in this meeting as well. The other primary issue was the nation’s differences over the EU. These are likely to be significant as Hague is known to be a Euroskeptic, while Clinton is pushing European Reform.
There is one curveball in all of this. While Brown and Obama may have disliked each other, all indications are that his Foreign Secretary, the up and coming 44-year-old David Miliband got on well with Secretary Clinton. In fact last year, she gushed that he was “vibrant, vital, attractive, smart.” Remember that there is an upcoming election to determine the new leader of Labour. The two frontrunners are Miliband and his younger brother Ed, the Energy and Climate Change Secretary. With David likely to win, Cameron may have a powerful counterbalance in his own country, very eager to take back power, and emboldened by its growing support from disenchanted Lib Dem voters.
The bottom line is this: it should be an interesting five years in the United Kingdom. While I am doubtful of David Cameron, he has seemed to me to be a smooth and polished speaker with little substance, he has proven to be a strong and pragmatic leader so far. Clegg has been neutralized. Gordon Brown’s career is over. Obama is glad that Britain has turned to the right? And the next time we bring up this subject, it will likely be when the real debate begins on how to deal with the country’s debt. That will be quite a scene.


















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