Alright, let’s start by talking about Iraq. The story of last week was the last combat brigade being drawn out of Iraq and into Kuwait. By no means are all Americans out of danger, as fifty thousand are sticking around for a training mission. But, by the end of the month Operation Iraqi Freedom will finally ending and with Operation New Dawn beginning, the Iraqi military will truly be in charge. This is good news.

Lest we forget, however, America spent over $700 billion, sacrificed 4,400 service members and over 100,000 civilians were killed in the crossfire, all to topple a dictator and create a fledgling democracy. Was it worth it? Is America safer? Better off?

This is a debate I don’t want to get into. What I’m more interested in is what impact this will have on the President and on who will be in the 112th Congress. The Iraq War was central to Barack Obama’s candidacy early on, as he constantly reminded us that he would have voted against it, which apparently counted for something in the eyes of voters and caucus-goers. He promised to get us out and he did. Early, at that. That would score him some points, right?

I really don’t think there way any way for the Iraq war to be a win in the eyes of Americans at this point, the President did achieve the best case scenario: a push. He pretty much broke even by making a promise and keeping it. The thing is, Americans have moved on and the war is no longer an important issue. The economy and job creation, the deficit, health care, and even illegal immigration rank higher on our issues list according to polling data. Recognizing the political dangers of declaring victory, as his predecessor did, the President has been downplaying the transition in Iraq. I just can’t see it being an issue again.

Afghanistan is a slightly different story. Iraq was always George Bush’s war, yet Afghanistan is now largely owned by Barack Obama. He played the Iraq “dumb war,” Afghanistan “smart war” game, and now he’s stuck in a quagmire. As brilliant as David Petraeus may be, and I really think he is, our strategy simply isn’t working and the situation will not be getting better any time soon. WikiLeaks hasn’t helped either. Even so, the nine year old war there won’t spell death in the midterms either so long as there is trouble at home.

Moving into a different gear, I’d say that one of the most intriguing races this fall will be for the open senate seat in Florida. When the Republican party rallied behind Marco Rubio and effectively pushed the popular Charlie Crist out of the party, it seemed that the young, handsome rising star in the party was in the fast lane. Kendrick Meek, the Democratic standard bearer, was undoubtedly a weak candidate with little statewide appeal.

Charlie Crist, making a move that was a potential career killer, decided to do the impossible in trying to win a big state senate seat without the backing of a major party. Surprisingly, his donors have stuck with him, and he’s polling neck and neck with Rubio. Seemingly Crist is killing with independents, while pulling in moderates from both parties. While Meek assumed that Crist would weaken Rubio enough for him to emerge, he still appears to have zero ability to win with even Democratic insiders writing him off.

Here’s where it gets tricky. If Charlie Crist were to win, there are indications that he would caucus with the Democrats. Should Meek continue to poll under twenty percent, Democrats could abandon ship and flock to Crist. The problem with this is that the DSCC could have its hands tied. Kendrick Meek is the only viable African American candidate for the senate, and with Roland Burris leaving, there is the potential for blacks not being represented at all. This would force them to pump millions into the race, potentially taking crucial Democratic votes away from Crist and handing Rubio a win. No wonder there has been a push to nominate billionaire Jeff Greene. With Meek gaining momentum in the primary, this seems to be a pipe dream.

Things can certainly change quickly in the next few months, but I would guess that Rubio and Crist stay close till the finish. Democratic voters are the “x factor.” If I was in Florida, I don’t know if I could swallow voting for Crist over Meek, who might actually make a good senator. It is the answer to that question that will make the difference, assuming Crist continues to pull about twenty-two percent of Republican voters.