I’ve had it. Really. I’m just livid. The thought was for me to wait a few days before writing this post. I wanted to let the dust settle and just calm down myself a bit. Maybe then there would be a silver lining. Guess what? There isn’t. Nice job, America. I hope you’re happy. You screwed yourself. Hard.
The reason I decided to start writing on this blog sixteen months ago was out of fear that our great nation, which I love as much as anyone despite what some folks on the right tell me, was headed for disaster. My singular voice, even if it was just a distant murmur that barely even registered, needed to be heard, I thought. There is a sensible path towards another century of prosperity, but without swift and bold action we would begin a swift decline to the detriment of all. Well, life got in the way and it was sometimes difficult for me to find the time to express my views. Now, more than ever, I feel that it’s time to speak up.
During the past two years, the Obama administration and Democrats in Congress amassed the greatest list of legislative accomplishments since the Lyndon Johnson years, maybe even since FDR. I truly believe that the stimulus package, TARP and restructuring of the auto industry saved our economy from the brink of collapse. Conservatives in the Bush years irresponsibly nearly drove the car off the cliff. Obama and company stopped it, but we’re still suck. Saying that things could have been a hell of a lot worse really isn’t a great talking point, even if it’s true. They also passed Wall Street reform, the most significant reform of the health care system since the creation of Medicare and Medicaid, credit card reform, gave the FDA the ability to regulate tobacco for the first time, finally signed the Lily Ledbetter Fair Pay act, a significant expansion of the Pell Grant, and an expansion of the hate crime law to include sexual orientation . In addition, Obama signed a new START treaty with Russia, and has been one of the world’s strongest advocates for nuclear arms reduction, increased fuel economy standards from 27.5 MPG to 35.5 MPG staring in 2016, ended the global gag rule, repealed restrictions on stem cell research, and issued an order to close Guantanamo Bay.
So what went wrong? Why did the President see a loss of seats in the US House WORSE than 1994, currently at 61 seats and counting? This is in addition to a loss of six seats in the US Senate, which might have been worse if not for Christine O’Donnell and Sharon Angle. What was it that caused my fellow Americans to crush my hopes and dreams of continuing the progress listed above? Despite what John Boehner and Mitch McConnell will have you believe, this was no repudiation of what Obama agenda. In fact, their policy platform, which currently consists of repealing health care reform, extending the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy and little else, is incredibly unpopular.
The problem was three-fold:
1) The number of young voters and minority voters as a percentage of all voters dropped from 18% in 2008 to just 11% and from 26% to 22% respectively. The best explanation of why this happened that I have heard goes something like this…these two groups are the most unreliable blocks of all in terms of turnout. They view politics like they do sports and Hollywood: it’s pure entertainment. 2008 was an exceptional year and they were tuned in. Barack Obama, as an orator every bit as good as any our nation has ever seen drove them to pay attention like never before. The dominant story line was that he was going to change the way Washington works and he gave us hope. Facing incredible challenges, he was forced to work within the system in his first two years, which seemed like a broken promise to these groups. Without a compelling storyline in 2008, no matter how strong the President’s argument for two more years was, they tuned out. And they’ll pay for it. The key point here is that their lack of turnout should not be interpreted as a repudiation of the Obama agenda, but rather disappointment that he was too pragmatic.
2. The historically volatile groups of whites and independents broke hard for Republicans after strongly supporting Democrats in 2008. There are a few ways to view this. The liberal caucus actually did fairly well, and there was no correlation to support of Obama’s policies and being voted out. In fact, it was the Blue Dogs who got hit the hardest. They were decimated, losing 24 of their 50 members up for re-election. These are the folks who voted against health care, the climate bill and the stimulus. How do you like them apples? From that perspective, if 2008 was a wave year, many red seats were returning to their natural disposition. Furthermore, Congress has a terrible approval rating. When a President’s party controls both houses, it often spells disaster. In fact, since WWII, I believe 26 years have had both the executive and legislative branches completely aligned versus 40 split years. Americans like divided government. More than anything it was a bad economy that did in the Obama administration. When people’s houses are losing value, or worse they are defaulting on mortgages, they can’t find jobs and have less money in their pockets and retirement accounts, at the end of the day they will vote for the opposition no matter what. No matter if the party holding power supports policies that will ultimately do them right down the road, no matter if it is the most successful Congress in roughly forty years. The one thing that could have kept the House in Democratic hands was a larger stimulus with smarter tax cuts and more money for infrastructure. This is what Obama’s economists had argued for, and the numbers suggest it would have almost certainly been enough to create significant positive job growth. Yet it’s questionable whether or not such a bill could have been passed. I tend to think that the two trillion dollars of stimulus Paul Krugman wanted was out of the question, but we could have done considerably better.
3. The last is more of an “x” factor, difficult to quantify and understand. I think we can all agree that Obama is a superior orator, but in the day to day of taking the temperature of the American people and explaining his policies to them, he is severely deficient to Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan. Some say that Obama has a predilection towards doing what is right for the country and not what will boost his poll numbers. Yet he should have sensed how turned off the American people were by the extended battle for health care reform and how much they despised the wheeling and dealing behind closed doors that came with it. Further, a more astute President would have recognized that his efforts to obtain bipartisanship were incredibly futile when the opposition party did nothing by say no, even when he put forward policies they supported. Their sole goal was and is to remove him from office in 2012. Why did he waste time making concessions and pandering to them with Olympia Snowe and company ultimately stuck with Mitch McConnell due to a threat of losing their leadership positions. The thing that baffles me most is the incredible unpopularity of the stimulus. Why could Obama not articulate that in times of depression, and that’s what we were in, a massive expansion of government is the only way to right the course? In fact, in exit polls, most Americans said they wanted the government to spent to create jobs which is in opposition to the Republican platform. Yet they voted for them anyway and oppose the stimulus, as well as the TARP program that made the government a PROFIT. PROFIT!!! I don’t get it. But I do know that when I was growing up, I would watch the great explainer tell me how he felt our pain, and I trusted him to go and make it better. Does Obama have that in him? Can he triangulate or come up with some other strategy? I don’t know.
In surveying the damage, the biggest loss of all was in state legislatures and governorships. But that deserves its own column and will follow shortly. For now, tell me what you think about the arguments I laid out. Am I right?
